Common Sense Economic Forecast Part I

I have so much to blog about I don’t know where to begin.  The market has been very active in recent weeks and it’s kept us  focused  on meeting deadlines, dotting I’s and crossing T’s.  I did take one day out last week to attend four, yes FOUR webinars. I will forever be a student.  I love to learn and there is never any shortage of material!

One of my favorite webinars was taught by John Tuccillo.  I have heard him before and was exited about getting an update on the economic recovery. I wanted to share with you a little of John’s common sense approach.

The Good News:

  • John addressed the fact that only 10% of stimulus funds were spent in 2009, 60% will be spent in 2010 and  the rest will be spent in 2011 and beyond.
  • Home sales are up!  Of course we are not sure how much of these number are attributed directly to the tax credit.  We will find out soon enough…less than 90 days left to take advantage of the homebuyer tax credits.
  • Babyboomers are buying real estate.  They are beginning to retire which means downsizing and/or changing locations.
  • We are in recovery and consumer psychology is reviving.

The Challenge

  • Job growth is still a big concern.  The recovery in this area is slow and sluggish at best.  The silver lining is that if history repeats it’s self; sharp job losses tend to be followed by sharp job gains.  It will be interesting to see how that plays out.  One of the concerns is that some of the lost jobs have been eliminated because technology has made them obsolete.
  • Foreclosure rates will continue to be  higher than normal (nationwide) because of the job market and because there are still a lot of people out there who over-borrowed against thier homes.  keep in mind….normal forclosure rate is approx  1/2 % of the total housing stock and currently it is 2% of total housing stock.
  • Interest Rate will go up.  Likley starting around the 4th quarter of 2010.  Initially this will create activity in the market as it will get buyers off the fence.  Longer term though,  higher interest rates make it more expensive to own.

Overall I was encouraged.  Knowledge is power and the more we know the better decisions we  make with our businesses and personal finances.    Stay tuned….I have a ton of “bloggy” ideas rolling around in my head and I’ll be sharing them with you soon.

Sarah Johnson

About Sarah Johnson

Johnson Home and Land is a small but active real estate firm in rural northwest Wyoming. We are an experienced team of professionals who seek inform our readers about the local and national real estate market. Contact us at info@johnsonhomeandland.com or 307-548-6909
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One Response to Common Sense Economic Forecast Part I

  1. Sarah Johnson says:

    Sorry about the “dead” link to John Tuccillo’s website. It’s fixed now. If that ever happens again….please leave a comment and let me know. Thanks all.

    Like

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